A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified points, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
